Friday, October 24, 2014

Auburn Game Preview and Prediction (vs. South Carolina)

Getting a week to recover from their 38-23 loss in Starkville to Mississippi State, now number five ranked Auburn (6th in the coaches poll) will turn their attention to the South Carolina Gamecocks. The Tigers did not play well in their visit to Starkville, turning the ball over four times. To be fair to Mississippi State, they weren't exactly at their best. Like Auburn, they also turned the ball over four times. It was just a very sloppy game period. The difference was the Bulldogs being able to turn Auburn turnovers into touchdowns while Auburn had to settle for field goals a lot of the time. During the off week, Auburn did get some help from around the country as number 4 Baylor fell on the road to West Virginia while number 14 Kansas State won on the road in Norman against the 11th ranked Oklahoma Sooners. Remember, Auburn went on the road and beat K-State on a Thursday night last month. To get back to South Carolina, the last time they and Auburn played one another was back in 2011. It was a real defensive slugfest, with then Auburn QB Barrett Trotter finding then Auburn tight end Philip Lutzenkirchen (R.I.P. Lutzie) in the end zone from 9 yards out with a minute and 38 seconds left in the game to lift the Tigers to a 16-13 victory on the road in Columbia. In 2010 during their run to the national title, the Cam Newton led Auburn Tigers beat South Carolina twice, once at home and then at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta to win the SEC title.

There isn't a lot of overall history between the two teams since South Carolina has only been in the SEC since 1991. Auburn holds a 9-1-1 advantage in the series history. The only win for the Gamecocks came on December 2, 1933 in Birmingham, Alabama at Legion Field. The lone tie came a year earlier by a score of 20-20 in a game also played in Birmingham. Now to talk about the 2014 South Carolina Gamecocks. They began this season ranked ninth in the country, but fell in the season opener 52-28 to Texas A&M and have been on a bit of a roller coaster ride ever since. After an easy 41-10 win over Furman, their record now stands at 4-3; 2-3 in conference play. In spite of an up and down season, there have been a couple of notable home victories for the Gamecocks, 38-35 over Georgia and 33-23 over East Carolina. Their other win came on the road at Vanderbilt. In addition to Texas A&M, South Carolina lost at home to Missouri and on the road against Kentucky in games they lost by a combined 8 points. They are coached by the 'Ole Ball Coach' himself, Steve Spurrier. Spurrier may be more well known for his coaching days at Florida, which included a national title in 1996, but he's done an outstanding job at South Carolina. He has amassed an 81-42 overall record in Columbia, 43-34 in SEC play. This has included winning 11 games in each of the last three years.

This particular South Carolina team will be more renowned for their offense than their defense, so we'll start on the offensive side of the ball. Their best player is junior running back Mike Davis. He took over as 'the man' at running back a year ago, rushing for nearly 1200 yards and 11 scores. Davis also added 34 receptions for just over 350 yards. Through seven games, he has rushed for 664 yards and six touchdowns. 398 of those rushing yards and six of those rushing TDs have come in the last three games South Carolina has played; which were against Missouri, Kentucky and Furman. Under center is senior QB Dylan Thompson. He took over for the departed Connor Shaw, who had a 27-5 career record as a starter for the Gamecocks. Shaw is now on the Cleveland Browns practice squad. Anyway, Thompson has had a solid start for the most part other than the Kentucky game in which he threw three interceptions. On the year, Thompson has thrown for 1839 yards to go along with 15 TD passes compared to just six interceptions. He likes to spread the wealth; counting running back Mike Davis, South Carolina has six guys who had 114 or more receiving yards going into their game with Furman. Their two main targets have been senior Nick Jones (it appears he didn't play against Furman) and sophomore Pharoh Cooper. Cooper has 430 yards and 4 TD grabs through seven games while Jones in six games has caught 27 balls for 363 yards and 3 TD grabs. Neither guy stands out for his height, especially not Jones, who is a little guy standing in at just 5'7" and just under 170 pounds. Cooper stands in at 5'11" and a shade over 200 pounds at 201 pounds according to ESPN.

As I'm sure it could be deciphered from the first sentence in the last paragraph, the big problems for South Carolina have been on the defensive side of the ball this year. They have lost a number of players to the NFL these last two or three years, but none were bigger than defensive end Jadeveon Clowney. Clowney was taken first overall in the 2014 NFL Draft by the Houston Texans. Through seven games, the Gamecocks have given up 220 points, which is just a shade under 31.5 points per game. That's not normal for a team that's had very good defensive teams these last few years and also ranks in the nineties amongst FBS teams. Rushing defense has been an issue as the Gamecocks have given up 181 yards per game on the ground. Although the pass defense is a bit better, ranking 77th in the FBS giving up a shade under 240 yards per game, it's nothing to write home about. The issues there are being middle of the pack in the FBS in terms of creating pressure. As a team, South Carolina has only been able to come up with 13 sacks, which has resulted in just six interceptions. The best player on South Carolina in terms of being able to create pressure and get into the backfield has been redshirt sophomore defensive end Gerald Dixon. He is entering his fourth season at South Carolina; sitting our his first year there with a fractured tibia which got him a medical redshirt. Dixon has had the unenviable task of trying to step up in place of Clowney and the unheralded Chaz Sutton. So far he has accumulated two sacks and 5 tackles for loss.

Another interesting side note is the football bloodlines at South Carolina. Gerald Dixon has a half brother on the team, Gerald Dixon Jr. who is a defensive tackle. Wide receiver Shamier Jeffery has an older brother who also played WR for the Gamecocks. That, of course was Alshon Jeffery. Alshon has become a star NFL wide receiver for the Chicago Bears. They also have a defensive back named Al Harris Jr. He is the son of former NFL cornerback Al Harris, whose most notable pro seasons came as a member of the Green Bay Packers. As far as this game goes, on paper at least, it appears to be a nice opportunity for the Auburn offense to get back on track after a bad game against Mississippi State. This Gamecock team doesn't stand out in any one area, so Nick Marshall ought to have a fine day hooking up with a strong core of wide receivers led by D'haquille Williams and Sammie Coates while the run game led by Cameron Artis-Payne and Corey Grant should be able to put up some nice numbers of their own. Dylan Thompson and Mike Davis should help the South Carolina offense put up some points, but I don't think it'll be enough. This should be a nice win for Auburn before another very tough road challenge against the Ole Miss Rebels.

My Call: Auburn 44, South Carolina 27

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