Friday, October 24, 2014

A Dozen Other Notable Games and Predictions

Miami (FL) at Virginia Tech
A little over a decade ago, these were two of the best programs in the nation. Now, both are just stuck in neutral and hoping to get a step up in the pecking order of a second rate bowl game. Since it's a Thursday night game in Blacksburg, I'll take the Hokies. Can't say I'm doing it with confidence.
My Call: Virginia Tech 23, Miami (FL) 20

BYU at Boise State
Losing star QB Taysom Hill was the death blow for poor BYU. Tough not to feel bad for them.They take another loss here, this time on Boise's blue turf.
My Call: Boise State 35, BYU 17

North Carolina at Virginia
Team with a lot of offense but no defense (UNC) takes on a Virginia team that's very strong defensively but has some issues offensively. Ultimately, UNC's defense sucks enough to where the Cavs offensive woes won't be such a factor. However, Virginia's defense can certainly slow a high powered Tar Heel offense enough.
My Call: Virginia 38, North Carolina 27

Minnesota at Illinois
Are these Gophers the best team in college football nobody's talking about? Meh... probably not. Although I will give them credit for their 6-1 record; with that only loss coming to an excellent TCU team. Let's up that record to 7-1. Illinois can't stop anyone and won't be able to put up enough points to keep up with this Minnesota squad.
My Call: Minnesota 37, Illinois 20

Maryland at Wisconsin
Although the Badgers have looked less than spectacular all year long, I have to take them to win this game on the strength of a big game from running back Melvin Gordon.
My Call: Wisconsin 38, Maryland 31

Texas State at Louisiana-Monroe
These are both very mediocre Sun Belt teams. The Warhawks seem like the right side to take in this throw of the dart.
My Call: Louisiana-Monroe 34, Texas State 30

Georgia Tech at Pittsburgh
Seems like it was just yesterday that Georgia Tech was 5-0 and we were thinking they were the best team in the country nobody was talking about. That's what losing a couple games to Duke and North Carolina will do though, leave a team reeling. Neither one of these teams is particularly wonderful, so in a throw of the dart, I'm gonna go with the Panthers. Pitt running back James Conner is a 250 pound bowling ball and I expect he'll rumble all over an awful Yellow Jackets run defense.
My Call: Pittsburgh 35, Georgia Tech 31

Central Michigan at Buffalo
Tough MAC-tion game where all I can do is throw the dart to make the pick.  Both of these teams suck defensively, I expect a shootout with the Chippewas coming out on top by four.
My Call: Central Michigan 42, Buffalo 38

Oregon State at Stanford
Won't be pretty, but the Cardinal will find a way to win a grind-it-out affair with the Beavers.
My Call: Stanford 24, Oregon State 17

Vanderbilt at Missouri
Check out these numbers... in their game against Florida a week ago, Mizzou got 119 total yards and scored one offensive touchdown. So how did they win 42-13? Well, six Gator turnovers, two defensive touchdowns and two special teams touchdowns sure did the trick. This week, I think Matty Mauk and the Tiger offense can get back on track against a less than stellar Vanderbilt defense. The Mizzou offense should also be able to keep the Commodores offense at bay.
My Call: Missouri 34, Vanderbilt 14

Temple at Central Florida
Defense will be the name of this one in a game where both teams have incompetent offenses. I'll take the Knights since it's in Orlando.
My Call: Central Florida 19, Temple 14

Wyoming at Colorado State
Craig Bohl is a terrific head coach, but Jim McElwain and the Rams are much further along and better than Bohl and the Cowboys. Especially in Fort Collins.
My Call: Colorado State 27, Wyoming 13

Top 25 Predictions (sans Auburn)

Oh those Notre Dame tears taste so sweet. You've got former Notre Dame players and even their coach still whining about that correct offensive pass interference call at the end of their game with Florida State which wiped out what very likely would have been a 34-31 Irish victory. Instead the Seminoles held on and won 31-27. They just can't admit defeat. It's amazing. Anyway, I went 24-10 with my picks this past weekend to run my record to 187-66. That gives me a .739 winning percentage on the season picking games. Not too bad. Gonna look to keep that up this week. As usual, I use the AP Poll rankings to make these picks.

#1 Mississippi State at Kentucky
Know the line from the Dumb and Dumber movie "You're saying there's a chance?" since that applies to this game. After defeating both Texas A&M and Auburn in convincing fashion, Mississippi State has had to deal with everyone blowing their horn saying how great they are. I'm not necessarily saying the hype is unwarranted, because it is warranted, but this just screams 'trap' to me, especially since the Bulldogs still have trips to Tuscaloosa and of course, Oxford for the Egg Bowl. That could keep this one a game for a bit. However, Dak Prescott and MSU should get going around the middle of the 2nd quarter and gradually begin to pull away early in the 2nd half. Mark Stoops will have Kentucky playing at a respectable level eventually, but his team doesn't have the 'D' to win this one.
My Call: Mississippi State 49, Kentucky 27

#3 Ole Miss at #24 LSU
A more dangerous task faces Mississippi State's in-state SEC rival, a night game in Baton Rouge. While this isn't exactly the best LSU team Les Miles has ever had, night games in Tiger Stadium are always a tough task. It also doesn't make it any easier that the Rebels host Auburn the week after this game. A rowdy crowd will have this Tiger team revved up early and they'll play well, but I just have to go with the defense and experience of Ole Miss to find a way in hostile territory.
My Call: Ole Miss 27, LSU 20

#4 Alabama at Tennessee
Times will eventually get better for the Vols under coach Butch Jones; and that will include more competitive games with rival Alabama. I keep preaching that every week I talk about the Vols. However, their youth and lack of depth doesn't serve them well at this point in time. At least not on the scoreboard; it will serve them well in gaining valuable learning experiences for the future. In the meantime, while Alabama won't win to the tune of 59-0 like they did against Texas A&M, they'll put up plenty of points on the board while shutting down that Tennessee offense.
My Call: Alabama 28, Tennessee 10

#6 Oregon at California
If you could go back in time and reread my analysis for the Oregon/Washington State game in which I predicted an Oregon blowout, you could take that and apply it to this game. However, my opinionated analysis didn't quite play out that way on the field. Although Oregon won, they got a real battle from Washington State in what was a 38-31 win, a far cry from the 59-28 score I was calling for. Will the same apply here or will we see that Duck blowout victory like I predicted earlier? I'm leaning more towards the latter. This Golden Bears team just can't stop anybody and unlike UCLA, I do think this Duck team will do a better job of taking care of the ball. That should lead to big points on the scoreboard for Oregon. While the Cal offense can score some points themselves, they just won't be able to put up enough to keep up.
My Call: Oregon 52, California 27

Michigan at #8 Michigan State
Although the histories between the two teams are largely tilted in Michigan's favor, this in-state rivalry has lately been mostly tilted in Michigan State's direction. The Spartans have won 5 of the last 6 meetings dating back to 2008; and unless the Wolverines have fired Brady Hoke and brought in one of their great teams from the 1990s to play in this game, I don't see MSU having much of an issue in making it 6 for the last 7. Although the last two games have been a vast improvement for Michigan, keep in mind that those games were against Rutgers and Penn State. Michigan State with Connor Cook leading the offense and a solid defense is a whole different animal, especially in East Lansing. Time for the Wolverines to crash back to Earth some.
My Call: Michigan State 31, Michigan 14

Texas Tech at #10 TCU
Great bounce back effort from the Horned Frogs after a gut wrenching loss in Waco against Baylor the week before. They put that behind them and completely dominated against Oklahoma State from start to finish; winning 42-9. Going up against a less than stellar Texas Tech team, I see no reason why that domination can't continue. The Red Raiders can't stop anybody, especially running the football, and TCU QB Trevone Boykin is one of the best dual threat QBs in the nation. He will use both his golden arm and his feet for another huge game and guide TCU to another blowout win.
My Call: TCU 51, Texas Tech 24

Texas at #11 Kansas State
Who would have thought that one day, a team would have to worry about avoiding a letdown playing Texas? That's the situation facing Kansas State after they came up with a huge 31-30 victory on the road against Oklahoma. Texas, meanwhile, won a wild 48-45 shootout on a Nick Rose field goal with three seconds remaining to get the Longhorns to 3-4 overall, 2-2 in Big 12 play. They have a shot to try and play a role in the race for the Big 12 title if they can knock off the Wildcats. Although Texas seems to bring their best games against the best teams they've faced (UCLA, Baylor, Oklahoma) at least on one side of the ball or the other, they just won't pull it off here, either. This time, it will be the Longhorns offense which lets them down. Their defense performs admirably, but they'll wear down in the second half from being on the field all game long, making a once close game lopsided.
My Call: Kansas State 34, Texas 13

#13 Ohio State at Penn State
Good news for the Nittany Lions is they'll have a hostile home crowd backing them up which should result in their best effort of the season. The bad news is they're facing an Ohio State team that is far better than them in just about every way possible. That Penn State offensive line won't be able to keep QB Christian Hackenberg upright while the Buckeye offense will carve up that Beaver Stadium field. The score won't be as bad as the 63-14 final from a year ago, but it'll be pretty bad.
My Call: Ohio State 41, Penn State 17

#14 Arizona State at Washington
Okay, Sun Devils. I have to give you guys props for proving me wrong and beating Stanford. Not only beating them, but dominating them in a 26-10 victory. They had that game circled after getting embarrassed at home by the Cardinal in the Pac 12 Championship game last season and took out a year's worth of frustrations. Now they'll head to Seattle to take on a Washington team that will look to take out some of their own frustrations after getting hammered 45-20 by Oregon in Eugene. The Huskies will show better in this game at home for sure, but I'm gonna take ASU. I'm a believer in the Sun Devil offense and believe their defense can be just good enough against an inconsistent Washington offense. Not a huge believer, but enough of one to make this prediction...
My Call: Arizona State 31, Washington 23

#15 Arizona at Washington State
Cool to see both Arizona schools on the road in Washington. The Wildcats will be in Pullman looking to avenge last year's home loss to Wazzu; which came after a blowout win over Oregon at home. Not sure which was more surprising, that blowout win over the Ducks or the loss to the Cougars which followed. Anyway, Arizona has had a couple of weeks to get over a 28-26 loss at home to USC. The Wildcats were actually trailing in that one by 15 points and things appeared dim, but they got within two, recovered an onside kick and got into field goal range. However, a missed field goal spelled doom. With that extra week to recover and revenge on the mend, I'll go with Arizona. Although I wouldn't be too surprised to see Washington State play them fairly close.
My Call: Arizona 41, Washington State 31

Rutgers at #16 Nebraska
Game plan for the Huskers should be simple enough in this game; hand the ball off to star running back Ameer Abdullah. When that doesn't work, try throwing him a pass. And if all else fails, just hand it off to him again. It should be another 20+ carry day and another 150+ yard game for him. Meanwhile, the Nebraska defense will frustrate Rutgers QB Gary Nova to no end, forcing him into three interceptions in a blowout victory. Husker coach Bo Pelini may or may not be on the "hot seat", but I know Nebraska fans are tired of 4 loss seasons and I'm sure he is also.
My Call: Nebraska 42, Rutgers 16

Connecticut at #18 East Carolina
Awful UConn team going on the road to take on Shane Carden and East Carolina? I'm not even sure why they're bothering to play this one. I get it, anything can happen in any given game, but the potential for that to happen will go by the wayside in the first 10 or so minutes. At least basketball season is on the way for UConn fans, where their program is the defending national champions on both the men's and women's sides. The ladies are the two-time defending champs, actually.
My Call: East Carolina 41, Connecticut 10

#20 USC at #19 Utah
I was personally hoping College Gameday would go to Salt Lake City to see this one between a USC team that has two solid road victories over Arizona and Stanford and this Utah team that has very quietly risen to 19th in both polls. They went to Baton Rouge for Ole Miss/LSU; not that I'm surprised. Anyway, I think you've got two very evenly matched clubs here with the game at Utah. I'm gonna take the Utes at home by one point. My opinion is USC will have the lead late, but Utah will run it down their throats and win it in the last minute of play.
My Call: Utah 24, USC 23

Syracuse at #21 Clemson
Ho hum... another game where Clemson will be able to use their stingy defense to take command right from the start. The Syracuse defense needs to come up with a few turnovers and the Orange need to win the special teams battle in a major way to have a shot. It doesn't happen.
My Call: Clemson 34, Syracuse 10

#22 West Virginia at Oklahoma State
Got two teams going at it here coming off of opposite spectrum type of games. West Virginia used a strong fourth quarter to defeat then 4th ranked Baylor by a score of 41-27 while Oklahoma State just got run out of the building by TCU in Fort Worth. Other than the fact that I see the Mountaineers having a letdown and the Pokes showing some pride, there's no reason for the madness of this pick. Cowboys in a mini upset, take down West Virginia in a shootout.
My Call: Oklahoma State 38, West Virginia 35

Florida Atlantic at #23 Marshall
More ho hum... Rakeem Cato and the Thundering Herd get to beat up on another hapless opponent. Cato runs his streak to 40 straight games with one touchdown or more.
My Call: Marshall 48, Florida Atlantic 14

#25 UCLA at Colorado
Even though it wasn't a work of art, UCLA escaped Berkeley with a 36-34 win over Cal and got a win they desperately needed in order to avoid a three game losing skid. Now they get to take on a Colorado squad that just got hammered by USC. They fell behind 28-0 before they knew what hit em. My guess is the Buffs should show better in this one if for no other reason than they can't do any worse than they did against Southern Cal, but will see another loss. Colorado's defense is just awful and Brett Hundley should capitalize on that all day long.
My Call: UCLA 44, Colorado 34

Auburn Game Preview and Prediction (vs. South Carolina)

Getting a week to recover from their 38-23 loss in Starkville to Mississippi State, now number five ranked Auburn (6th in the coaches poll) will turn their attention to the South Carolina Gamecocks. The Tigers did not play well in their visit to Starkville, turning the ball over four times. To be fair to Mississippi State, they weren't exactly at their best. Like Auburn, they also turned the ball over four times. It was just a very sloppy game period. The difference was the Bulldogs being able to turn Auburn turnovers into touchdowns while Auburn had to settle for field goals a lot of the time. During the off week, Auburn did get some help from around the country as number 4 Baylor fell on the road to West Virginia while number 14 Kansas State won on the road in Norman against the 11th ranked Oklahoma Sooners. Remember, Auburn went on the road and beat K-State on a Thursday night last month. To get back to South Carolina, the last time they and Auburn played one another was back in 2011. It was a real defensive slugfest, with then Auburn QB Barrett Trotter finding then Auburn tight end Philip Lutzenkirchen (R.I.P. Lutzie) in the end zone from 9 yards out with a minute and 38 seconds left in the game to lift the Tigers to a 16-13 victory on the road in Columbia. In 2010 during their run to the national title, the Cam Newton led Auburn Tigers beat South Carolina twice, once at home and then at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta to win the SEC title.

There isn't a lot of overall history between the two teams since South Carolina has only been in the SEC since 1991. Auburn holds a 9-1-1 advantage in the series history. The only win for the Gamecocks came on December 2, 1933 in Birmingham, Alabama at Legion Field. The lone tie came a year earlier by a score of 20-20 in a game also played in Birmingham. Now to talk about the 2014 South Carolina Gamecocks. They began this season ranked ninth in the country, but fell in the season opener 52-28 to Texas A&M and have been on a bit of a roller coaster ride ever since. After an easy 41-10 win over Furman, their record now stands at 4-3; 2-3 in conference play. In spite of an up and down season, there have been a couple of notable home victories for the Gamecocks, 38-35 over Georgia and 33-23 over East Carolina. Their other win came on the road at Vanderbilt. In addition to Texas A&M, South Carolina lost at home to Missouri and on the road against Kentucky in games they lost by a combined 8 points. They are coached by the 'Ole Ball Coach' himself, Steve Spurrier. Spurrier may be more well known for his coaching days at Florida, which included a national title in 1996, but he's done an outstanding job at South Carolina. He has amassed an 81-42 overall record in Columbia, 43-34 in SEC play. This has included winning 11 games in each of the last three years.

This particular South Carolina team will be more renowned for their offense than their defense, so we'll start on the offensive side of the ball. Their best player is junior running back Mike Davis. He took over as 'the man' at running back a year ago, rushing for nearly 1200 yards and 11 scores. Davis also added 34 receptions for just over 350 yards. Through seven games, he has rushed for 664 yards and six touchdowns. 398 of those rushing yards and six of those rushing TDs have come in the last three games South Carolina has played; which were against Missouri, Kentucky and Furman. Under center is senior QB Dylan Thompson. He took over for the departed Connor Shaw, who had a 27-5 career record as a starter for the Gamecocks. Shaw is now on the Cleveland Browns practice squad. Anyway, Thompson has had a solid start for the most part other than the Kentucky game in which he threw three interceptions. On the year, Thompson has thrown for 1839 yards to go along with 15 TD passes compared to just six interceptions. He likes to spread the wealth; counting running back Mike Davis, South Carolina has six guys who had 114 or more receiving yards going into their game with Furman. Their two main targets have been senior Nick Jones (it appears he didn't play against Furman) and sophomore Pharoh Cooper. Cooper has 430 yards and 4 TD grabs through seven games while Jones in six games has caught 27 balls for 363 yards and 3 TD grabs. Neither guy stands out for his height, especially not Jones, who is a little guy standing in at just 5'7" and just under 170 pounds. Cooper stands in at 5'11" and a shade over 200 pounds at 201 pounds according to ESPN.

As I'm sure it could be deciphered from the first sentence in the last paragraph, the big problems for South Carolina have been on the defensive side of the ball this year. They have lost a number of players to the NFL these last two or three years, but none were bigger than defensive end Jadeveon Clowney. Clowney was taken first overall in the 2014 NFL Draft by the Houston Texans. Through seven games, the Gamecocks have given up 220 points, which is just a shade under 31.5 points per game. That's not normal for a team that's had very good defensive teams these last few years and also ranks in the nineties amongst FBS teams. Rushing defense has been an issue as the Gamecocks have given up 181 yards per game on the ground. Although the pass defense is a bit better, ranking 77th in the FBS giving up a shade under 240 yards per game, it's nothing to write home about. The issues there are being middle of the pack in the FBS in terms of creating pressure. As a team, South Carolina has only been able to come up with 13 sacks, which has resulted in just six interceptions. The best player on South Carolina in terms of being able to create pressure and get into the backfield has been redshirt sophomore defensive end Gerald Dixon. He is entering his fourth season at South Carolina; sitting our his first year there with a fractured tibia which got him a medical redshirt. Dixon has had the unenviable task of trying to step up in place of Clowney and the unheralded Chaz Sutton. So far he has accumulated two sacks and 5 tackles for loss.

Another interesting side note is the football bloodlines at South Carolina. Gerald Dixon has a half brother on the team, Gerald Dixon Jr. who is a defensive tackle. Wide receiver Shamier Jeffery has an older brother who also played WR for the Gamecocks. That, of course was Alshon Jeffery. Alshon has become a star NFL wide receiver for the Chicago Bears. They also have a defensive back named Al Harris Jr. He is the son of former NFL cornerback Al Harris, whose most notable pro seasons came as a member of the Green Bay Packers. As far as this game goes, on paper at least, it appears to be a nice opportunity for the Auburn offense to get back on track after a bad game against Mississippi State. This Gamecock team doesn't stand out in any one area, so Nick Marshall ought to have a fine day hooking up with a strong core of wide receivers led by D'haquille Williams and Sammie Coates while the run game led by Cameron Artis-Payne and Corey Grant should be able to put up some nice numbers of their own. Dylan Thompson and Mike Davis should help the South Carolina offense put up some points, but I don't think it'll be enough. This should be a nice win for Auburn before another very tough road challenge against the Ole Miss Rebels.

My Call: Auburn 44, South Carolina 27